November 11, 2008

History's Take on America

How will history books cover American culture in 200 years? I am of the opinion that history will see the American lust for credit and insatiable desire for stuff with the same evolved disapproval that we view the Ancient Roman lust for blood and violence. Over the past 30 years the word "entitlement" has come to take on a whole new signification in America. No longer are the days where entitlement is the assumed security blanket trio of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The new American entitlement is a guarantee of an endless credit limit that allows an individual to purchase anything that their heart desires regardless of whether or not they have the liquidity to afford it.

This model has worked for us. The growing American lust for stuff and availability of credit allowed our country to fund incredible levels of innovation and growth across almost every sector of our economy. Where the Romans, the British and other historic empires had to expand outward to sustain consistent economic growth, we found a model that was fueled internally and non-violently; consistently drive higher demand while increasing availability of credit to the entire society. The model spans from the ground up and from the top down all at once. Our largest companies are as dependent on credit as the individuals in our culture; so dependent in fact that the current dry-up in credit availability threatens to throw the world into unprecedented economic downturn. They also have the additional vaporous revenue stream that is the speculation also know as 'investments' in the stock markets which are now little more than legalized gambling after so many years of deregulation.

It worked for many years. Even beyond the current crisis, it may work for many more. Ultimately, it is a formula for implosion. The 700 billion dollar government bailout was just the tip of the iceberg. This will be the action around which future history books will write that entitlements moved from being a security mechanism for the most needy in the society to being blanket government coverage for any level of irresponsibility, poor decisions or irresponsibility at any level of the society. We are now starting to see the industry pile-on. Major financial institutions led the way then an insurance giant and now the auto industry has voiced what is little more than a threat that they have only to year's end before running dry on funds to sustain the $100,000 salaries of their union labor force and their long standing lack of innovation.

The bailouts may work in the short-term. I don't carry the expertise to refute this. Even the experts however seem to agree upon the fact that our government spends way more than it makes. Our 10 trillion dollar debt is a testament to this fact. Most individuals in our culture are a mirror of this same behavior as our government. It's acceptable. We never think twice about it. We want something, we just get a loan or we put it on our credit card or we get a payment plan. When terrorists bomb our cities, instead of directing citizens to huddle as families and fill our grain stores, our leaders tell us to go shopping.

When in the history of the world has there ever been an entire developed society that is capable of sustaining a model of spending more resources than they are capable of regenerating without some form of territorial expansion? Expansion at this point is probably not likely as we have created a global nuclear deterrent that seems to hold the most powerful states on the planet from driving too far beyond their borders. So, we must somehow restart the flow of credit to both industry and individuals to subsequently restart overall market growth and invite further investment in the market. Rather than learn a lesson from our current difficulties, we are doing everything in our power, including giving the government mandate to spend more money that they don't have, to return to the status quo.

Now that the precedent is set for bailing out industry for a lack of accountability it is possible that we will begin to see an increased frustration and pressure from individuals, communities and small businesses for the Federal Government to provide similar debt forgiveness. Who amongst us would not welcome it? I would surmise that most Americans carry immensely greater amounts of debt relative to that of any society in the history of the world. Why would we, the individuals not eventually expect the same forgiveness as our pillars of industry? What happens after several rounds of boom/bust with the government providing increasing assistance to industry regardless of industry's inability to retain financial liquidity and stability?

If we cannot find a way to change course and attitudes, I believe that the history books in 200 years might write that this very point in history is where we laid the foundations of a new kind of revolution, a revolution that could only be birthed out of a system that encouraged unprecedented levels of debt and then pardoned only a fortunate few. Imagine the scene after the government depletes it coffers by saving an endless line of industry behemoths while at the same time programs that benefit individuals will slowly and silently start being cut from the budget. We aren't hearing it from any of our politicians as such a statement is political death but rest assured there is no way out of this without cutting something. The history books in 200 years will tell of a new kind of revolution that took place in the mid 21st century. This revolution will be a bloodless, non-violent revolution where there is really no moral high ground. All involved parties in this revolution, governments and individuals were equally as guilty. The history books will tell of groups of citizens essentially bringing down governments without so much as a word or action but rather an inaction. After years of government bailouts and growing government quasi-ownership of all major financial institutions, citizens in the 21st century will be the first in history to bring a government to it's knees with one simple collective show of spiteful disapproval; not paying their credit cards.

Posted by chris keesey at November 11, 2008 11:12 PM
Comments

Excellent post, Keesey.
What we are headed for is tightened belts and some new form of socialism. What isn't being talked about is that there are just too many of us.

Posted by: Rodak at November 12, 2008 10:28 AM